[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"$fsM4ex5TMpfDDpNrCjrD3HjnfS0nPiMWO0ood8v5hWL0":3,"$fwxaXa3M2Hlq4pVpDwAOv0idp1snUGhatppfIKTNwKoM":39,"$f6pU5gXhn_VfpOKdZi4y3mdKS3f0yJprqC0pomir95HA":84,"$feZVxr1e3J3Cwl7GUeaBGPiweYTcAFUmNrE-VPPi6RZ4":138},{"ads":4,"bookConfig":37,"enableAds":13,"enableAdsVpn":13,"enableAdsVps":13,"userConfig":38},[5,12,19,25,31],{"coverImage":6,"description":7,"id":8,"image":9,"link":10,"title":11},"https://cdn.alltool.top/image/detail/fanai_ad.jpg","一顿饭AI 提供 ChatGPT Plus、Claude 等主流 AI 会员服务，支持支付宝直接付款，价格实在，开通简单。",7,"https://alltool.top/image/detail/chatgpt_logo.png","/blog/5a43","ChatGPT Plus低价代充｜支持支付宝",{"coverImage":13,"description":14,"id":15,"image":16,"link":17,"title":18},null,"1核1G内存30G SSD，每月1TB流量，美国节点，可以用来部署专属VPN、小型网站、博客。",2,"https://alltool.top/image/detail/cloudcone_favicon.png","https://cgfw.top/selfvpn.html","全球最便宜的VPS云服务器(13元/月)",{"coverImage":13,"description":20,"id":21,"image":22,"link":23,"title":24},"2核2G内存40G SSD云服务器，3M带宽，1个外网IPv4地址，超高性价比！",1,"https://img.alicdn.com/tfs/TB1_ZXuNcfpK1RjSZFOXXa6nFXa-32-32.ico","https://pdfs.top/blog/pt4s#ad","阿里云99元/年服务器专享购买链接",{"coverImage":13,"description":26,"id":27,"image":28,"link":29,"title":30},"免费下载电子书阅读器，支持Windows、安卓、IOS、MacOS等系统",5,"https://alltool.top/image/detail/ebook.png","https://pan.xunlei.com/s/VOLZuDZRhtvQUgIxeq96Mu9pA1?pwd=abn7","EPUB、PDF电子书阅读器下载",{"coverImage":13,"description":32,"id":33,"image":34,"link":35,"title":36},"最强PDF工具，支持编辑、签名、加密、OCR识别等25种功能。",3,"https://alltool.top/image/detail/adobe_acrobat.png","https://pdfs.top/blog/n7gq#ad","Adobe Acrobat Pro 2025绿色版","{\"bookQa\":[{\"question\":\"能否在线阅读？\",\"answer\":\"跳转到网盘下载页面，可以在线阅读，觉得不错再转存到自己的网盘。\"},{\"question\":\"如何下载？\",\"answer\":\"先将文件夹转存到自己的网盘（一定要转存整个文件夹，否则文件更新不会提醒），然后在网盘下载文件。\"},{\"question\":\"不知道下载哪种格式？\",\"answer\":\"移动端阅读推荐EPUB格式；电脑端如果阅读技术书籍，推荐PDF，阅读文学作品推荐EPUB格式。\"},{\"question\":\"个别PDF文档预览一直提示“文档打开失败”\",\"answer\":\"网盘自身问题，下载后可正常阅读。也可先转存到自己的网盘，再用客户端预览。\"},{\"question\":\"每天的下载次数是多少？\",\"answer\":\"每人每天可以下载5本不同的书籍，已经下载过的不占用下载次数。⚠️通过技术手段恶意频繁下载会被封禁！\"}]}","{\"enableResourceRequest\":true,\"enableAds\":true,\"enableAdsVpn\":false,\"enableAdsVps\":false,\"indexTopCount\":15,\"indexTopLatestCount\":15,\"indexStickCount\":10,\"indexLatestCount\":20}",{"author":40,"bookTags":41,"bookVersion":13,"categoryIds":46,"categoryNames":48,"code":50,"coverImageUrl":51,"createTime":52,"description":53,"doubanUrl":54,"files":55,"indexId":13,"isbn":63,"isbn10":13,"language":64,"name":65,"publishDate":66,"publisher":67,"pv":68,"recommendation":69,"score":70,"seoDescription":71,"seoKeywords":72,"seoTitle":73,"series":74,"tags":75,"title":80,"toc":13,"translator":81,"updateTime":82,"updateTimeDesc":83},"[英] 彼得·图尔钦 等",[42,43,44,45],"历史动力学","历史周期","社会科学","帝国兴衰",[47],311,[49],"历史","zybk3","/image/cover/zybk3.jpg","2026-05-28 21:47:37","\u003Cp>《百年周期》试图回答一个古老问题：为什么许多社会在经历人口增长、经济繁荣和国家扩张之后，会逐渐进入财政困难、精英竞争和政治动荡？作者没有只依赖传统历史叙事，而是搜集长期人口、工资、物价和政治冲突数据，用模型检验社会变化是否存在重复出现的结构。\u003C/p>\u003Cp>全书研究中世纪和近代早期英格兰、法国、古罗马以及俄国等多个社会，共分析八个长期周期。典型过程往往从人口与经济扩张开始，随后资源压力增加、实际工资下降、社会上升空间收窄，同时精英数量持续扩大并产生越来越激烈的内部竞争。\u003C/p>\u003Cp>当人口压力、精英过剩和国家财政问题叠加之后，社会容易进入持续的政治不稳定阶段，包括内战、革命和政权危机。危机消耗人口与精英力量之后，压力逐渐下降，又可能为新的稳定和扩张创造条件。作者把这种持续数百年的变化称为“百年周期”。\u003C/p>\u003Cp>本书适合对历史周期、帝国兴衰、复杂系统、人口学和政治经济学感兴趣的读者。它并不是简单宣称历史会机械重复，而是尝试用可比较数据寻找社会稳定与动荡背后的长期机制，为理解历史提供一种不同于传统叙事的量化视角。\u003C/p>","https://book.douban.com/subject/38385394/",[56],{"code":57,"fileFormat":58,"fileSize":59,"needPassword":60,"netDiskType":61,"pages":62,"remark":13},"90b6613b015343eeaa664c3d9eb4e94e","PDF+EPUB","57.67 MB",true,"Quark",401,"9787521782554","中文","百年周期","2026-04-01","中信出版集团",40,"本书运用人口、工资、物价、精英数量、国家财政和社会动荡等长期数据，研究古罗马、英格兰、法国与俄国的八个历史周期，提出从扩张、滞胀到危机与萧条的结构性循环框架，是历史动力学的重要代表作。",7.6,"《百年周期》PDF免费下载，作者：[英] 彼得·图尔钦 等，ISBN：9787521782554，于2026年04月出版。本书运用人口、工资、物价、精英数量、国家财政和社会动荡等长期数据，研究古罗马、英格兰、法国与俄国的八个历史周期，提出从扩张、滞胀到危机与萧条的结构性循环框架，是历史动力学的重要代表作。","百年周期,彼得图尔钦,谢尔盖涅菲多夫,Secular Cycles,历史动力学,帝国兴衰,历史循环,精英过剩,人口周期,社会动荡,复杂系统","《百年周期》- 图尔钦等 - PDF下载","",[76],{"code":13,"color":77,"name":78,"sort":15,"tip":79},"secondary","转换版PDF","EPUB格式转换的PDF，文字可复制，但与纸质版排版不一致","《百年周期》PDF下载","刘云中","2026-08-23 16:53:02","25天前",[85,96,107,118,129],{"author":86,"categories":87,"code":90,"coverImageUrl":91,"description":13,"name":92,"publishDate":93,"pv":94,"score":95},"[美] 瑞·达利欧",[88,89],"商业与经济学","经济学","s1aqb","/image/cover/s1aqb.jpg","国家为什么会破产：大周期","2025-06-01 00:00:00",348,8.5,{"author":97,"categories":98,"code":101,"coverImageUrl":102,"description":13,"name":103,"publishDate":104,"pv":105,"score":106},"[哥伦比亚] 加西亚·马尔克斯",[99,100],"小说","经典","d9fdd7c6ea4f4865b8492a6c344cdafd","/image/cover/d9fdd7c6ea4f4865b8492a6c344cdafd.jpg","百年孤独","2011-06-01 00:00:00",2773,9.3,{"author":108,"categories":109,"code":112,"coverImageUrl":113,"description":13,"name":114,"publishDate":115,"pv":116,"score":117},"星球研究所",[110,111],"地球科学","地理学","q9myj","/image/cover/q9myj.jpg","这里是中国2：百年重塑山河","2021-07-01 00:00:00",280,8.1,{"author":119,"categories":120,"code":123,"coverImageUrl":124,"description":13,"name":125,"publishDate":126,"pv":127,"score":128},"[美] 克劳迪娅·戈尔丁",[121,122],"社会、政治与哲学","女性研究","vmor4","/image/cover/vmor4.jpg","事业还是家庭：女性追求平等的百年旅程","2023-07-01 00:00:00",79,8,{"author":130,"categories":131,"code":133,"coverImageUrl":134,"description":13,"name":135,"publishDate":136,"pv":137,"score":70},"石云涛",[49,132],"中国历史","93mzs","/image/cover/93mzs.jpg","安史之乱：一首记载百年帝国风云变幻的历史长诗，细致勾勒大唐时代的危机与变迁","2023-11-01 00:00:00",534,[]]